NFL Coach of the Year: Leslie Frazie

Minnesota through 10 games under Childress:  3-7
Minnestota subsequently:                                 3-2
Minnesota total                                                6-9

Null Hypothesis:  Vikes played the same for both coaches
6-9 Record means P = 6/15 = 40%
3-2 Record means P1 = 3/5 = 60%

What is the likelihood of a 40% team winning 3 of its last 5 games against opponents whose overall records are presently (excluding results of game with Vikes):

REDSKINS    10 -   4   4.5/15
BILLS              3 - 11    9/15
GIANTS           8 -  6    6/15
BEARS          10 -  4    4.5/15
EAGLES        10 -  3    4 / 15

SUB:              41 - 28  E[28 /75]  = 1.9 wins
                                  A[3/5]       = 3.0 wins

If Vikes have 40% chance of winning v a 50% team, then chances of winning v a 60% "composite team" are less

60% team is 9-6           (guess 4.5 - 10.5)
50% team is 7.5 - 7.5   (6-9)

HERE is what must REALLY be frustrating for both Childress & the Vikes

wk
01     9 @ NO 14             11- 4
02    10 v  MIA 14             7- 8
03    24 v Lions 10            5-10
04    - - - -
05    20 @ JETS 29         10- 5
06    24 v DAL  20             5-10
07    24 @ GB 28              9- 6
08    18 @ NE 28             13- 2
09    27 v AZ 24 (OT)         5-10
10    13 @ CHI 27            11- 4
11      3 v GB 31                9 - 6

12    17 @ WASH 13         6 - 9

13    38 v BUFF  14           4 -11

14     3 v NYG 31              9 - 6

15    14 v CHI  40            11- 4

16    28 @ PHI 14           10 - 5

                                    125 - 100    55.5%
                                        6 -    9
                                    119 -  91  = 56.7%

Childress won 30% of the games versus opps with 55.5 probability of winning
Frazier won 60% of the games versus opps with 56.7% probability of winning

HANG ON TO LESLIE FRAZIER